Monday, September 06, 2004

Polls: Bush internals

Everybody wants to talk about polls. CNN. Fox. Instapundit. Kos.

I was trying to get Card to give me my afternoon kibble and all he wanted to know: What's the bounce today? Is Kerry the next Dukakis? Rove, are you gonna eat that cheeseburger?

Over at Talking Points Memo, they're talking about this:


Note on polls: as of the day after the convention I'm told by what I believe to be reliable sources that the internal polls of both campaigns had President Bush up roughly four points on John Kerry.

Getting straight-up info on what each campaigns' own polls are telling them is inherently difficult. And I want to make clear that I have not seen the data with my own eyes. But I have heard this from sources (for each side) which I believe to be reliable. And I'm passing the information on on that caveat-ed basis.


Well, on our way to Missouri today, I was sitting next to Mehlman on the plane and he had a copy of our internals. This is what they said:


Category*Bush*Kerry*Other*Comments

Angry white guys * 80%*9%*11% Nader (or in therapy) * Nutty Zell Miller made Cheney look like Bob Newhart

Horny white guys* 45%*45%*10% (in SF) liked Ron Reagan Jr.* Some liked twins. Some wanted to be hamster owned by Kerry girls

Rogaine users* 2%*90% *8% Nader (Grecian formula bloc) *Cheney should wear a piece. Or a hat.

Dog owners*97% *3%*0%*Barney RNC video a hit in swing states

Yes, we’re winning.

But no one wants to tell the REAL reason.

Sigh.


Update - USA Today now has Bush up by 7 points.


As the campaign enters its last eight weeks, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday shows Bush at 52%, Kerry at 45% and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 1% among likely voters. Before the convention, Bush led Kerry by 2 percentage points.





Update (Sept. 7, 2004) — Matthew Yglesias crackswise about polls:



Panic Time!

Man that John Kerry sure is toast....

02:40 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)




Yglesias notes the Rasmussen tracking reporting , which shows the race tied.



Tuesday September 07, 2004--The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 47% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

Our latest Electoral College projection shows Bush leading 213-175. Neither man can count on the 270 Electoral Votes needed for victory (150 Electoral Votes remain in the Toss-Up category). In Missouri, it's Bush 48% Kerry 42%. Polls released yesterday for New Jersey and Michigan show both states getting a bit closer. It's tied in Minnesota while Kerry holds an eight-point lead in California.