Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Exit polls: First wave

Slate says it'll have exit poll numbers. Drudge, his hat and his siren claim that the first wave is causing excitement for Kerry.

There's some guidance as to why some places are publishing them and what they mean:

These early exit poll numbers do not divine the name of the winner. Instead, regard these numbers as a sportswriter does the line scores from the fourth inning of a baseball game. The leading team might win the game, but then again it might not. But having the early data in front of him helps the sportswriter plot the story he thinks he'll need to write at game's end.


Update: Kos has these exit numbers.

Tue Nov 2nd, 2004 at 18:03:32 GMT

Jerome over at MyDD gets the big scoop
on the 2 p.m. VNS numbers:


AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41


In 2000, the early numbers favored Bush. In 2002, exit polling was terribly innacurate. Exit polling also doesn't account for absentee and early ballots. And it's still early in the day. PA and MN will be much closer than these number indicate.

So please, please take with a giant grain of sand.

GOTV!